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   "id": "2609.13345",
   "title": "Beyond Point Forecasts: A Survey on Probabilistic Forecasting for Time Series and Spatiotemporal Data",
   "description": "[PAPER CLAIM] Survey unifies probabilistic forecasting by where/how uncertainty enters pipeline: model-agnostic (pre-control limits Sec 3.1, ensembles Sec 3.2, conformal prediction Sec 3.3.1, conformalized quantile regression Sec 3.3.2) vs…",
   "year": 2026,
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   "id": "2609.27431",
   "title": "Bayesian inference, on-line forecasting and model choice for large VAR models with Cholesky stochastic volatility",
   "description": "Exact MCMC kernel for K-dim BVAR with Cholesky SV (Sigma_t = A^{-1} Lambda_t A^{-T}) using reparametrisation ye=A y plus Particle Gibbs/CSMC for volatilities, and waste-free SMC2 for on-line one-step predictive density and marginal…",
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   "title": "Relegation, promotion and the components of scoring in water polo",
   "description": "First Bayesian hierarchical model of water polo splitting scoring into even-strength, man-up opportunities/conversions, and penalties, with correlated abilities, component-specific home effects, AR(1) across seasons, and a substitution…",
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   "title": "Scalable Bayesian Spatiotemporal Tensor Modeling for Censored and Missing Areal Data",
   "description": "Scalable Bayesian tensor model Y=<B,X>_3+W+E for areal units x time with censored/missing values treated as latent truncated-normal variables (Sec 2, Eqs 1-2, Sec 3.1.1 Eq 14). Spatial Gamma via SAR or DAGAR (Eq 3, Sec 2.1), temporal Phi…",
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   "title": "Mechanism Design Is Not Enough: Prosocial Agents for Cooperative AI",
   "description": "Drawing on incomplete contract theory, when contracts cannot distinguish welfare-relevant future contingencies (incontractible cells, Def 4), there is strictly positive welfare loss no mechanism in the language can eliminate (Theorem 6…",
   "year": 2026,
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   "title": "Disentangling Heterogeneous Traffic Dynamics for Multi-Step Traffic Forecasting via Adaptive Spectral Decomposition",
   "description": "ADNet disentangles traffic signals into dominant and residual components via a learnable complementary spectral mask and models them with two separate Graph WaveNet branches, achieving best in 20 of 24 region-horizon-metric comparisons on…",
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   "title": "Generative diffusion models for spatiotemporal influenza forecasting",
   "description": "Influpaint adapts denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to influenza forecasting by encoding a season as a 52 x L image (weeks x locations, pixel intensity = hospitalizations) and framing forecasting as conditional generation…",
   "year": 2026,
   "submitted": "2026-04",
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   "title": "BOBA: Dynamic Bayesian Optimization through Bayesian Active Inference",
   "description": "BOBA is a dynamic Bayesian optimization acquisition function combining intrinsic (uncertainty) and extrinsic (goal-matching) terms from active inference free-energy Eq.10, evaluated on 8 synthetic benchmarks vs GP-UCB and WDBO (Sec.3-4).…",
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   "id": "2609.27977",
   "title": "BFI: An R Package for Bayesian Federated Inference",
   "description": "BFI v3.2.0 is an R package for Bayesian Federated Inference when individual-level multicenter data cannot be pooled. Each center runs local Bayesian MAP estimation and sends only MAP vector theta_hat and curvature matrix A_hat plus prior…",
   "year": 2026,
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   "id": "2609.29792",
   "title": "TimeBraid: Unifying Time Series and Language for Understanding and Forecasting",
   "description": "TimeBraid fuses a pretrained LM and pretrained time-series foundation model via interleaved global residual attention in a shared space, trained in two stages on 2.23M alignment pairs (Sec 3.1, Fig 2) + 4.88M SFT samples, achieving best…",
   "year": 2026,
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